#2 – Weekly Market Updates 09th-15th December

weekly newsletter

Welcome to our first free offering to our fellow investors/traders.
So you must have one question in your mind ” What is this ? And why another weekly newsletter when there are already another websites are offering the same ?
Let me try to answer this

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Markets have started on a week note but ended the week to all time high closing above 21000 levels since in USA, Federal reserves speakers signaled rate cuts in the next years.
Indian government bond yields decline around -1.42% and closes on 7.163% while US 5 year bond yields fell by more than -7% all these fueled the markets to the all time new high. In my very first post, I already mentioned that there is no signals of more rate hikes.
Over all this crude price are already under manageable position while USDINR strengthening added an booster for the markets.

Mid Cap and Small Cap are again winners but it seems that large cap stocks are also gaining momentum. While in IPO market it will be a busy week ahead with total 8 IPOs opening in Mainboard and listing of the IPOs which were open in last week.

On Sector wise performance it was not a surprise that IT was the best performing sector over a week due to US market activity.
In our first public post we mentioned that, we are bullish on Pharma for the next year so we will continue to mention our pick Pharma and IT for the next year.

On PSE and Real Estate there is no margin of safety since there is already a runup from past two years, so one must be careful in picking stocks. In our opinion we are bullish on PSE and Infra sector.
For high risk MF investors, it is best to start a booster SIP in IT funds for the next one year.

Based on FII Index Futures Net Long Position , It can be seen that FIIs have increased there position drastically from 24% on 28th Nov to 60% approx. on 15th Dec but it is not at alarming levels,
Last time, when I published first post it was at 20% and market moved around 8% from that level and the position is approx. 80% within these days.
All this clearly indicate that small corrections may come or time based corrections, since there is stock specific activity in the market.

( Remember any correction in Midcap Cap and Small Cap can create negative sentiments which may create sell off in whole of the markets).

Our First post on stock : NTPC Limited

Should I Invest in SmallCap Now?

I am getting this question daily these days so I tried to answer it using our data in our existing post published 6 month back.

Link : Analysis of Microcap Index ( Give some minutes and study it )

Below there are two chart represent the distribution of probability of annualized returns when held for 3 years and 5 years. Larger a bar, the more chances of getting that return.(chart is interactive hover over the bars to highlight them)

If you would have held the Nifty Small Cap 250 Index for 3 years, there is 22% probability of getting returns in between 10-20% vs 52% probability in Nifty 50 and 12% probability in Nifty Microcap 250 Index.

Whereas , if anyone would have held Nifty Small Cap 250 Index for 5 years, there is 41% probability of getting returns in between 10-20% vs 63% probability in Nifty 50 and 40% probability in Nifty Microcap 250 Index.

On the risk side if you held small cap for 3 years there is 12% probability of getting returns less than 5% where as this gets reduced to 1% probability if holding for 5 years.

Conclusion

So if anyone is planning for long term investment of more than 5 years they can invest but buying at high can be painful in the initial years. It can be beneficial for SIP mode of investment rather than lumpsum. And for investment with less than 5 years one need to be cautious keeping in the mind, the runup happened in the smallcap in past two years.

Important Corporate Announcements - You can't afford to miss.

Out of 1500+ corporate announcements on NSE. We have filtered out most important announcements which in our view is most important and one should keep this in mind before taking any positions in the respective stock.

Acquisition

Credit Rating

Bonus Share/Rights Share Announcement

Order Received

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